January 19, 2004, 10:45 A.M.
I've been giving a good deal of thought to President Bush’s recent announcement regarding the future of space exploration. Despite my instinctive skepticism of Bush administration proposals and some obvious political undertones in the announcement, I believe it is important for our government to be talking about the future of exploration, discovery and the attendant technological advancements.
As a child I was enamored of the space program. I grew up around the Apollo program and the moon landings. This was a great time for national pride and for technological advancement and discovery. Many of the technologies, inventions and gadgets developed to put a man on the moon translated into our everyday lives in the form of advanced computer technology, plastics, Velcro (and Tang), to name a few. It is my fervent hope that the future of space exploration, and for that matter, government sponsored technology of any kind, will lead to alternative energy sources, making us less dependant on foreign oil and non-renewable energy sources and products of our own planet. But exploration is more than that. Exploration is a manifestation of natural human curiosity and energy. It is healthy for human beings to direct their energies toward endeavors that change, and hopefully advance, mankind. I believe in space travel, and I believe that space travel, exploration and the attendant scientific and technological gains have to be encouraged and undertaken.
That being said, I am suspicious of Bush’s announcement and timetable to establish permanent lunar facilities intended to support an ultimate manned mission to Mars. I’m suspicious for several reasons. First, I’m not convinced that the proposal put forth by the Bush administration is the best proposal in a scientific and engineering sense. There are certainly options that may be more technologically feasible that should not be foreclosed in the early stages of planning further exploration. I would prefer more comprehensive scientific and technical planning, in other words, more forethought, than appears to have been put into the Bush plan. Second, I’m concerned about the economics. The plan to increase the funding does not include new funding sources. In other words, the money to support the President’s proposal will have to come from a budget that is already in record deficit, which is unrealistic and clearly political. It is unrealistic to believe Bush administration claims that we will fund NASA to the tune of additional trillions of dollars, while reducing the most massive budget deficit in the nation’s history by half. It is especially unrealistic at a time where millions of manufacturing jobs are being shipped overseas.
My third observation, building on the first two, is that there is a real and tangible political benefit to the President and his party in making this announcement. President Bush has made these big announcements (regarding immigration, science and technology, and the economy) to lay the groundwork for his upcoming reelection campaign. Karl Rove, in that infamous New Yorker article, suggested that it was his goal to create essentially a Republican dynasty. While it may sound cynical to call into question the motives behind these announcements, the short view of the details (or lack thereof) of these programs clearly suggests that they are designed for their political impact, and not for long-term consideration.
For example, the President made Medicare reform a priority. He pushed a bill through Congress that will substantially increase the cost of drug programs to senior citizens in the future at a time where the baby boomer generation will just be entering that system. There is no reasonable mechanism for funding these increases, and the burden of either changing the legislation or increasing the burden on taxpayers to pay for these programs is put off far enough into the future that the current administration will be a memory and its architects will have the opportunity to figure out a way to blame problems brought about by this legislation on future administrations.
The proposal regarding the space program is the same. The President has made an announcement that will clearly increase his popularity in California, Texas and Florida, where large aerospace industry contractors and their employees will soon be asked to vote for president. But the numbers are not going to work. This is reminiscent of the shuttle program when it was proposed almost thirty years ago. It was clear at the time that the shuttle program was created and presented to Congress that the numbers projected for the cost of the program were simply unrealistic. The idea was to get Congress to commit to the program and leave the funding problem to a future administration and Congress. This is a dishonest process. It is a process, however, that is currently being used to sell the Bush vision of manned missions to Mars. It is a political statement that is intended to get votes for the President by tapping into the national and intrinsically human spirit of curiosity and exploration. A more honest administration (if there is any such thing) would say that this is a noble goal that will advance knowledge and civilization in general. It is something that we must do. It is also something that we must figure out a way to pay for.
If we truly are committed to revitalizing and reshaping the future of the space program, the plan should revitalize entire sections of American industry in order to motivate the people to support the program. A space program of this magnitude should include investment in American manufacturing that would allow many of our high-tech manufacturing jobs to remain in this country, and encourage the startup of new manufacturing businesses. We should put American workers to work in this program, rather than allowing multi-national corporations to ship the benefits of this program to overseas workers.
We need to provide incentives to start-up businesses to allow them to compete not only in this program, but to compete on a global scale to maintain jobs at home. If investment in a Martian landing will stimulate this type of reinvestment in American manufacturing infrastructure, it’s a good thing. If pieces and parts of the next generation spacecraft and attendant technology are shipped to China for creation by cheap labor, it will be nothing more than another failure to protect jobs for Americans at the expense of multi-national corporate profits.